The Middle East, the USA and the Future
The USA has propped up backward regimes in the Moslem world.This may have a unsavory backlash and the winner may well be China.
The Future after the Fall of Present Arab States.
Recently a tape has surfaced showing Osama Bin Laden addressing his followers and exhorting them that the time has come to act and overthrow the corrupt and decadent regimes in the Moslem world. This tape recorded just before he was shot dead must make all people in the world get up and take note of what is happening in the Moslem world.
The entire arc of the Moslem world from North Africa to Asia Minor and SE Asia is in ferment. The recurrent theme of the entire region is a protest against the present regimes. Most of these regimes were dictatorships and quite a few had the backing of the United States, which has followed a policy of democracy at home and support of dictatorships and obscurest regimes abroad.
Moslem World in Ferment
The Moslem world is no exception and the USA has propped up regimes like Hosni Mubarak in Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, Jordan that has to a degree towed the US line, but suppressed dissent at home. However the sands of time have run out and 2 dictators from Tunisia and Egypt have been shown the door and some more from Libya, Yemen and Syria are facing tough opposition at home. Whether these dictators go or not is not the point, but what is more relevant is what will happen in the future. Will these countries become democracies or a resurgent Islam will take over?
Down fall of the Dictators
Take the case of Egypt. Hosni Mubarak has gone but the dominant mood after him is of an Islamic resurgence. People are not happy with the peace pact with Israel and minorities are attacked. It’s a real pot boiler and the USA and its allies cannot take comfort from the ouster of Mubarak, for what may happen is that a hard line Islamic government may take over.
Look at Libya. Gaddafi was an enemy of the west, but he kept the Moslem fundamentalists at bay as well. In case he goes where is the surety that a right wing Islamic government may not take over? The story is the same all over the Moslem world and even in Pakistan a movement for purity in Islam is in the offing with an armed Wahabi sect fighting the Pakistan state.
In this entire scenario the scene is one, do away with dictators and usher in not democracy but a more fundamental Islamic state. The danger of this is very real. Perhaps part of the blame lies with the USA and the western powers that allowed obscurantist regimes to continue. In addition they removed some people like Saddam Husain of Iraq who was in fact the opponent of hard-line Islamic power. That was a blunder of the first magnitude.Look at the US support for Saudi Arabia. In fact it is the greatest eye sore in the modern age and I will not be surprised that though the people are kept on a tight leash, the rumblings will soon reach there. The Monarchy in Saudi is steeped in a bygone age and out of tune with modernism. The lid is bound to blow sometime. It is just a matter of time, yet the USA backs this regime that does not even allow women to drive a car, let alone do any other important work.
The US President and his think tank must be worried. The situation is not conducive for the west. Neither is it good for India which may very well be sucked into the vortex of the Islamic resurgence. The common man feels the west led by the USA is the greater evil. Who will change that perception? I am afraid the future has dark possibilities and one just hopes that some more Iran’s do not emerge. In that case a clash of civilizations, as forecast by Nostradamus may become inevitable and the west may not be the winner. After all history is a cycle and one civilization replaces another. The winner in this case could be China, more by default than anything else.