Minus 16 Outside! Then Life goes on

Peter B. GiblettStarred Page By Peter B. Giblett, 5th Jan 2014 | Follow this author | RSS Feed
Posted in Wikinut>News>World

Its cold outside, do we really have to go out? That it the key question when it is really cold what can you do? The truth is we have to grin and bear it. Whether we believe the weather forecast or not is a personal preference, we simply have to deal with it.

What can you do?

We all wish for the weather forecast that shows the outside temperature to be that of a bright summers day, but deep in mid-winter all we wish to do is stay tucked up in bed with our lover sharing body warmth and perhaps more besides, instead we have to rise and start our daily routine.

"That wasn't what the weather forecast said." We mutter as we start to rise and get ready for the daily grind.

Truth is weather forecasts are very often wrong because the forecast we here last night on television was probably made several hours before the broadcast and was based on a predictive model and such models can only be a best guess, reality is all too often different and in the case of the weather the prediction can be wrong because of a multitude of reasons, usually either the air mass changing direction or stalling or speeding up and given that predictions are made when weather patterns are 500 or 600 miles away from us gives plenty of scope for change. Yet it seems many of us take these forecasts too seriously, rather than as a guide or warning as to how we should be prepared for the worst tomorrow has to offer, which is surely the intention of the broadcast in the first place.

Reverse the situation with real weather being significantly better than predicted and people still complain, so whatever the weather it seems it is never satisfactory or are we all a bunch of wingers.

Predictive Technology

However the success of weather forecasting is all about the development of predictive technology, the same technology many corporations use daily to provide sales forecasts, and this technology was at the forefront of much of my career over many years.

Truth is predictive technology is only as good as the data available to base the predictions on and the more data available the more accurate can be the solution, this is also true for weather forecasts, yet any what-if scenario is still only a best guess, it takes little account for the unexpected happening when you least expect it, none could foresee the start of the recession in 2008 because they tended to favour positive outcomes rather than a sudden change in direction, as was experienced at that time, we know now that there are cycles of activity that cause good and bad economic times, yet how many factors can you add to a computational model before it becomes too complex? And alongside this it is important to ask how you remove false positives or negatives, and it is generally true that this remains a matter of interpretation and that requires human intuition by a person with expertise to understand this fully.

Life goes on!

The truth is we cannot all have perfect California weather and neither is it desirable to have those days where the forecaster is the same recording that was playing in 1953, we are actually in a better state of mind when things vary on a day to day basis. Life is about dealing with both the highs and lows of the weather, and the strangest thing about that minus 16 was seeing someone cycling along, albeit wrapped up warmly

Steve Kinsman and our other friendly Wikinut Californians may possibly disagree when I state that the weather there can be a little boring and I would prefer my weather to be mixed up a little.

Oh and I did no discuss the scale used and agreed -16 Fahrenheit is much colder than -16 Celsius, but precision is no required here when discussing the cold.

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Tags

Best Guess, Cold, Economic Conditions, Forecast, Forecasts, Prediction, Tucked Up In Bed, Weather, What-If Scenario

Meet the author

author avatar Peter B. Giblett
Author of "Is your Business Ready? For the Social Media Revolution"

Social media consultant, with C-Level background.

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Comments

author avatar Jerry Walch
5th Jan 2014 (#)

Well, Peter, it wasn't minus 16 here today, but it was cold. We did have to go out and would have even if it had been minus 16. When it's really cold out we load our van up with blankets and go around to all the parks in search of homeless people who need another blanket or two. Today we did blankets and food packages.

This was a well formulated article, Peter.

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author avatar Ptrikha
5th Jan 2014 (#)

Very noble work!

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author avatar Peter B. Giblett
5th Jan 2014 (#)

Jerry, whatever the weather a noble deed indeed.

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author avatar cnwriter..carolina
5th Jan 2014 (#)

I agree Peter what Jerry is doing is very wonderful...bless him...

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author avatar Sivaramakrishnan A
5th Jan 2014 (#)

Weather predictions are tough any day though in southern parts of Asia it is mostly hot, hotter and hottest! siva

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author avatar Ptrikha
5th Jan 2014 (#)

Not in Delhi NCR, we have 40+ in summers and a few days back, the minimum went down to 2.4 degree celsius.

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author avatar cnwriter..carolina
5th Jan 2014 (#)

I too prefer the seasons and yet it does get very cold here in los angeles at night and in the early morning...

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author avatar Jerry Walch
5th Jan 2014 (#)

I have lived in both Los Angeles and the Long Beach/Belmont Shores areas and I remember those cold, damp foggy mornings. I prefer the Colorado Springs cold because, as a rule, it's a much drier cold which doesn't make it feel as cold.

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author avatar cnwriter..carolina
5th Jan 2014 (#)

I too prefer clean cut cold and spending 10years in Miami too it was terribly humid there too. by the way Jerry I admire your taking care of people in need..it is a great blessing...some of the people I am involved with went downtown los angeles at Christmas and fed over 3000 homeless people there..it was another blessing...

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author avatar Jerry Walch
5th Jan 2014 (#)

Well, it's heading down towards Peter's minus 16 degrees...it's minus 1 degrees here in Colorado Springs right now and it's 6:36 AM. The high is supposed to be a scorching 18 degrees. We will be going out with our Van of God at 10 to pick up any homeless that may want to go to church with us. We will take blankets with us for any that may need them

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author avatar Ptrikha
5th Jan 2014 (#)

I think when temperature goes below zero, its all about windchill factor rather than the actual temperature, and if you come to Delhi and surrounding areas, a temperature of 2-3 degrees in night time could be as chilling as say winters in England due to windchill!

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author avatar Peter B. Giblett
5th Jan 2014 (#)

Having experienced winters in England and Canada I have to say that sometimes it felt colder in London than it does here in Southern Ontario, yet that has something to do with humidity.

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author avatar Connie McKinney
5th Jan 2014 (#)

Here in Upstate New York, the temperatures have already dipped below zero. I agree with Peter; just grin and bear it. I enjoy the change of seasons and would miss it if I had to move.

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author avatar Jerry Walch
5th Jan 2014 (#)

I use to live in the foothills of the Adirondack Mountains, Connie. Getting snowed in two or three times every winter was routine for me. Here in the Springs, I'm only minutes away from the foothills of the Rockies, so I have the best of both worlds.

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author avatar Retired
5th Jan 2014 (#)

Thank you Peter for sharing this... weather does change and I agree I'd like weather to be different than the same everyday...

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author avatar cnwriter..carolina
6th Jan 2014 (#)

now that the poles have shifted we can expect weather changes..

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author avatar Ptrikha
7th Jan 2014 (#)

Are you talking about magnetic shift?

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author avatar Fern Mc Costigan
6th Jan 2014 (#)

A well written and interesting post, kudos!

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author avatar Mariah
6th Jan 2014 (#)

Interesting post Peter, we all love to talk about the weather.
I agree with you in that a variety onf the weather pattern is more refreshing.
In Britain, although we complain about the cold and the rain, it's what we are used to, and as much as hot summer days are a novelty, for the majority, in countries who are not used to daily sunshine, we are always glad to see the hot weather break again.
It all comes down to the familiarity and the acceptance of the norm for people doesn't it!

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author avatar Steve Kinsman
9th Jan 2014 (#)

While most of the Midwestern and eastern U.S. shivered in below zero cold, we in California were experiencing record high temperatures in many parts of the state. We have had virtually no measurable rain now since March of last year. Where I live there is an unobstructed view of the highest ridges of the Sierra Nevada, and it is strange to look out at the peaks and see not a single snowflake upon them. Great post Peter.

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author avatar Toks Anwasi
17th Feb 2014 (#)

Does anyone here knows what an Albertan (Western Canada) winter feels like? Well it's better experienced than described.

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author avatar Virendra Singh Bhanu
21st Mar 2014 (#)

Thanks for sharing, love them! I think you should add your favorite words to favoritewords.com

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